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Analysis: Premier League Survival
Prozone analyse the survival statistics of newly promoted clubs over the last five seasons. Not surprisingly, the margins between survival and relegation are narrowing while the rewards for success are increasing.
A Scott Sinclair hat-trick and a wonderfully composed finish from Stephen Dobbie saw Swansea win the Npower Championship play-off final against Reading at Wembley and guarantee their place in the English game’s top flight for the first time in 28 years. The game was dubbed by many as the ‘£90 million pound match’ with the winning club likely to enjoy an increase in revenue for the season ahead of around £40 million and a further £48 million available through four years of parachute payments should they fail to avoid the drop.
The financial importance of survival
The pressure to survive that first season is already on however, as relegation from the Premier League will cost relegated clubs around £25 million a year in the short term rising to almost £41 million, after the parachute payments cease, (Deloitte). With such huge sums to play for, QPR, Norwich and Swansea will be doing all they can to ensure their time at the top table extends beyond 38 games.
Premier League survival statistics
Over the last five years the average time that newly promoted clubs spent in the Premier League was 1.9 seasons, and the last time that all three promoted clubs managed to avoid immediate relegation was 2000/01. Over the last ten years the team promoted as champions have been relegated after just one season on three occasions, the runners-up on four occasions and the play-off final winners on six occasions.
Every point counts
In four of the last five seasons the 17th placed team have survived by a margin of one point or by superior goal difference. And while ‘reaching 40 points’ is seen by many as the Holy Grail, the average number of points needed to retain Premier League status over the last five seasons has been 36.7. So if Norwich, QPR and Swansea can get to 37 points next year, they should hope to be on the road for Premier League survival.
Investment on the pitch
It is the players on the pitch that will ultimately earn those points, which is why all three newly promoted clubs will be looking to bring in new players to create a squad that they feel is capable of keeping them in the Premier League. Over the last five seasons, the newly promoted teams have brought in the most players during the summer with an average of 9 new players, while the top four clubs bring in an average of 5.1. This is perhaps understandable, with new clubs looking to bring in the added number and quality of players they need to stay up, while in the upper reaches of the league it is usually more about refining the squad to achieve a higher finish and push for honours.
The January transfer window sees another busy time for the newly promoted clubs, as they look to cement their place in the top division. In fact, they bring in almost three times as many players (4.2) as those teams in the Champions League places (1.5).
The established Premier League clubs draw the majority of their player purchases from the top leagues in Europe (the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga) with the top four clubs drawing an average of 63.1% of all transfers from these leagues. With smaller budgets and less pulling power, the newly promoted teams must cast their net further and perhaps take a gamble on players who have not yet proven themselves in the top European leagues. In fact, the newly promoted clubs will take just under half (45.3%) of their new recruits from outside of these ‘Big Five’ leagues.
Performance comparison
Ultimately, the newly promoted clubs will need to ensure their Premier League status by performing on the pitch. Having analysed the performance statistics of teams that have survived their first seasons and those that have returned to the Championship after just one season, there really is very little difference in their key performance indicators. In fact, the relegated teams have a superior pass completion rate with 54 more passes a game than the teams that survive. These relegated teams also had an average of 1.1 more shots on goal per game. This would suggest that possession and shots at goal are not necessarily indicators of superiority, and that incisiveness and accuracy in front of goal play a larger role in survival.
There is a lot of speculation on the physical demands of the Championship compared to the Premier League. This last season saw Championship teams run an average of 3.6km more each match than their Premier League counterparts, cover 1,239 metres at high intensity and perform 62 more sprints per game. Therefore it will be adapting to the style of play and the tempo of the game that will be fundamental for the newly promoted clubs. The statistics show that relegated teams run 25m further in every match and cover 92m more at high intensity than those teams that have avoided the drop proving quality is the key to Premier League success.
The importance of ‘six point matches’
There is an old adage that “when you’re down at the bottom it’s the six pointers that matter”. However, both relegated West Ham (14 points) and Birmingham (13 points) gained more points against the eventual bottom six than 17th placed Wolves, who managed only 8 points against their direct relegation rivals. So, it would appear that not even beating those around you at the bottom can guarantee survival.
A hard season ahead
With the statistics offering few straight forward answers into what it takes to survive in the Premier League, except to say that survival and relegation depend on small margins and that a single point will usually make the difference, Prozone wish Neil Warnock, Paul Lambert, Brendan Rodgers and their teams the best of luck for the upcoming season.
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