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Analysis: Effective Attacking Play
Analysing performance data from the English Premier League, Prozone are able to gauge how offensive performance has evolved over time to provide insights in to the effectiveness of attacking play.
With the charting of significant changes and trends within the game of football currently a popular analytic method, Prozone has noticed an increase in the number of clients seeking to assess performance over a longitudinal period. Of late, journalists such as Jonathan Wilson and Michael Cox have made it their business to carefully study the development of both tactical and performance-related trends at the highest level, these methods of observation becoming increasingly popular as a whole.
In relation to this increased focus on the development of the game over prolonged periods of time, Prozone is able to provide a wealth of detailed and accurate analysis of data from all EPL games over the last five seasons. As an example of the scale and scope of this data, we can assess the popular claim that the division has become more attacking and exciting to watch as the years have passed, subjecting such observational arguments to the rigours of statistical verification.
As a general rule, the number of goals scored per team per game has remained relatively uniform over the last five seasons, the average figure over the six-year period standing at 1.28. As would be expected, the number for teams that have finished inside the top four is higher at 1.95. Indeed, in what could be said to be a reflection of the perceived gains in the strength of the top clubs relative to the rest of the league, the opening stages of the 2011/12 campaign have seen the top four teams score at the phenomenal rate of 2.56 goals per game.
Graph 1 – Average Number of Goals Scored per Team per Game
While the consistency of the number of goals per game may appear to negate the idea that the Premier League has become increasingly offensively-oriented, looking at the various figures for total shots and shots on target appears to give the point of view more empirical support. As the graph demonstrates, the number of shots per team per game has steadily increased season-by-season, from 12.98 in 2006/07 to 14.29 this season, the figure for shots on target increasing at a very similar rate.
Graph 2 – Average Number of Shots, Shots on Target and Goals Scored per Team per Game
When considering this rise in the number shots, we are able to gauge how offensive performance and the effectiveness of attacking play has evolved over time, by assessing the average numbers of final third and penalty area entries over the last few seasons. The data shows that while penalty area entries have remained fairly consistent, forays into the final third have actually decreased. The incremental figures for shots, would appear therefore not due to an increase in the quantity of attacking entries but as a result of increased efficiency and quality of attacking play and build up. Peaking at 70.65 final third entries per team per game in 2006/07 and dropping to 66.53 in 2010/11, bearing in mind the relative consistency in the number of goals per game, and increased number of shots – teams are making their offensive play count.
Graph 3 – Average Number of Final Third Entries and Penalty Area Entries per Team per Game
To further support this, the sheer efficiency of attacking entries into the penalty area in the Premier League has improved, a statistic which again suggests a rise in the quality of Premier League attacking play over the last six years. Although the total number of attacking moves may have dropped, there is a consistency in the league’s average number of successful penalty area entries per team per game, actually rising from 10.89 to 11.92 between 2006/07 and 2011/12, peaking at 12.29 in 2009/10. As would be expected, the number for teams that have finished inside the top four is consistently higher peaking at 15.76 in 2009/10. These figures suggest that more players are receiving the ball in the penalty area and, as a result, giving themselves more effective opportunities to shoot at goal.
Graph 4 – Average Number of Successful Penalty Area Entries per Team per Game
However, with a relatively constant number of goals over the last 5 seasons, although perhaps the division is becoming more entertaining in terms of the number of shots and - bearing in mind the statistical efficiency of the attacking play on show and the technical quality of its players, goals are somehow conserved.
This gradual shift in the Premier League towards a greater number of shots, at a cost of an average shot being less likely to result in a goal, suggests an improvement in the standards of play across the board including defensive play. As a result, clubs are more likely to put together great attacking combinations, effectively producing more opportunities for shooting while the conversion rate due to overall league standards shows that the relationship between the input of shots and the output of goals is not proportionate. To use the data for more practical coaching purposes, closer examination of where goals are scored from allows us to see how defences are most regularly undone, and where efficiency can continue to be improved in attacking play. Over the last three seasons more than 85% of goals have been scored from within the penalty area, 41.7% of strikes being placed into the bottom corners of the goal during the 2010/11 campaign. This informs us that, despite improvements in shooting accuracy even from distance, the greatest threat is still posed from close-range where players are able to shoot more precisely and force goalkeepers to react faster.
Graph 5 – Placement % of All Goals Scored - FA Premier League 2010/11
With this in mind, for the most prolific conversion rate of chance creation resulting in ,what appear to be conserved, goals in the Premier League the greatest success continues to come from shots within the penalty area and central areas of the pitch where there is a greater chance for accurately finding the low corners of the net. Despite the risks forcing opponents to shoot from distance or at least pushing them wider inside the penalty area, would from the data conserve opposition goal scoring opportunities with very few goals coming from the extremities of the eighteen-yard box.
Graph 6 – Zones % of All Goals Scored – FA Premier League 2010/11
Teams that shoot more therefore do not necessarily score more efficiently, however, as the data serves to demonstrate, when combined with an increased number of shots on target, the effect of these trends is that the Premier League and the competition’s reputation for exciting, attacking football continues to grow.
In an increasingly competitive environment, Prozone’s range of analysis and consultancy services, can deliver bespoke analysis projects allowing clubs to create and adapt effective training programmes. For more information please email insight@prozonesports.com or call +44(0)113 244 9296.
*All data from 2011/12 FA Premier League correct up to 16th October 2011.
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